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  1. Date: Sun, 28 Aug 94 04:30:07 PDT
  2. From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
  3. Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu
  4. Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu
  5. Precedence: Bulk
  6. Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #969
  7. To: Info-Hams
  8.  
  9.  
  10. Info-Hams Digest            Sun, 28 Aug 94       Volume 94 : Issue  969
  11.  
  12. Today's Topics:
  13.        Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 26 August
  14.  
  15. Send Replies or notes for publication to: <Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu>
  16. Send subscription requests to: <Info-Hams-REQUEST@UCSD.Edu>
  17. Problems you can't solve otherwise to brian@ucsd.edu.
  18.  
  19. Archives of past issues of the Info-Hams Digest are available 
  20. (by FTP only) from UCSD.Edu in directory "mailarchives/info-hams".
  21.  
  22. We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text
  23. herein consists of personal comments and does not represent the official
  24. policies or positions of any party.  Your mileage may vary.  So there.
  25. ----------------------------------------------------------------------
  26.  
  27. Date: Thu, 25 Aug 1994 12:16:05 MDT
  28. From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
  29. Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 26 August
  30. To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
  31.  
  32.                ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
  33.                            July 22 to August 01, 1994
  34.  
  35.                 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
  36.                    P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
  37.                                    T0K 2E0
  38.                     Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008
  39.  
  40.                                   ---------
  41.  
  42.                      A NEW ADDITION TO THE WEEKLY REPORTS
  43.                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  44.      A new set of graphs have been incorporated into these weekly reports
  45.      and will remain a regular feature of these reports. The graphs plot the
  46.      average 10.7 cm solar radio flux values for various numbers of days. For
  47.      example, the 5-day average 10.7 cm solar radio flux graph plots the
  48.      solar flux, averaged over a period of 5 days.  Similar plots for 10 and
  49.      20 day solar flux averages have also been included.
  50.  
  51.      These new plots can be used to aid in determining shorter-term
  52.      ionospheric propagation conditions and can be used as input into the
  53.      various propagation programs (ex. SKYCOM) for shorter-term forecasts
  54.      of HF radio propagation conditions.
  55.  
  56.                                   ---------
  57.  
  58.              SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
  59.              ----------------------------------------------------
  60.  
  61.                 |10.7 cm|HF Propagation  +/- CON| Mag| Aurora |
  62.                 |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
  63.               --|-------|-----------------------|----|--------|
  64.        August 26|  072  | G  G  F  F  05  00  75|3 12|NV NV LO|
  65.               27|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  75|3 12|NV NV LO|
  66.               28|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  75|2 10|NV NV LO|
  67.               29|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  70|2 10|NV NV LO|
  68.               30|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  70|2 10|NV NV LO|
  69.               31|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  70|2 10|NV NV LO|
  70.     September 01|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  70|2 10|NV NV LO|
  71.               02|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  70|2 10|NV NV LO|
  72.               03|  073  | G  G  F  F  05  00  70|2 10|NV NV LO|
  73.               04|  076  | G  G  F  F  05  00  65|2 10|NV NV LO|
  74.  
  75.  
  76. PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (26 AUG - 04 SEP)
  77.     ________________________________________________________________________
  78.    |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
  79.    | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
  80.    |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
  81.    |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
  82.    |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
  83.    |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
  84.    |            ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
  85.    |         UNSETTLED | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | NONE       |
  86.    |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  87.    |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  88.    |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
  89.    | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
  90.    |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
  91.    |________________________________________________________________________|
  92.  
  93.                             CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%
  94.  
  95. NOTES:
  96.        Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
  97. phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
  98. periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
  99. the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
  100.  
  101.  
  102. 60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
  103.  
  104.          ____________________________________________________________
  105.      28 |                                                 A          |
  106.      27 |     A                                           A          |
  107.      25 |     A             A                             A          |
  108.      24 |A    A           A A                             A          |
  109.      22 |A    A           A A                             A          |
  110.      21 |A   AA           A A                            AA          |
  111.      20 |A A AA           A A                            AA          |
  112.      18 |A A AA           A A                            AA          |
  113.      17 |A AAAA           AAAA          A              A AA          |
  114.      15 |A AAAA    A      AAAA          A             AAAAAA         |
  115.      14 |AUAAAAU   A      AAAA          A             AAAAAA         |
  116.      13 |AUAAAAU   A      AAAA U U   U  A             AAAAAA         |
  117.      11 |AUAAAAU  UA      AAAA U U   U  AU            AAAAAA         |
  118.      10 |AUAAAAUU UA      AAAAUU U   U UAU            AAAAAAU        |
  119.       8 |AUAAAAUU UA      AAAAUU U   U UAUU           AAAAAAU        |
  120.       7 |AUAAAAUU UA      AAAAUU U   U UAUUUU         AAAAAAU    UU  |
  121.       6 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQ    AAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUU Q      AAAAAAUUU UUUU |
  122.       4 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQ  AAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQ QQ  QAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
  123.       3 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQQQAAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQQQQQ QAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
  124.       1 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQQQAAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQQQQQQQAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
  125.       0 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQQQAAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQQQQQQQAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
  126.          ------------------------------------------------------------
  127.                          Chart Start Date:  Day #178
  128.  
  129. NOTES:
  130.      This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
  131.      A-index or the Boulder A-index.  Graph lines are labelled according
  132.      to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day.  The left-
  133.      hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
  134.      Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
  135.      J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.
  136.  
  137.  
  138. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
  139. ----------------------------------------------------------
  140.  
  141.      ____________________________________________________________
  142. 090 |                                                            |
  143. 089 |                                                 *          |
  144. 088 |           *                                     *          |
  145. 087 |     *     *                                     *          |
  146. 086 |     * *   *****                                 *          |
  147. 085 |     * **  *****                                 *          |
  148. 084 |     * ** ******                                **          |
  149. 083 |    *************  *                            **          |
  150. 082 |    ************* ***                           **          |
  151. 081 |    *****************                          ****         |
  152. 080 |    *******************                        ****         |
  153. 079 |   ********************                        ****         |
  154. 078 |   *********************  *                  * **** *       |
  155. 077 |   ************************                  *********      |
  156. 076 |   *************************     *    * * *  *********      |
  157. 075 |   ***************************  **** ****** ***********     |
  158. 074 |* *****************************************************     |
  159. 073 |*******************************************************     |
  160. 072 |********************************************************  **|
  161. 071 |************************************************************|
  162. 070 |************************************************************|
  163.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  164.                         Chart Start:  Day #177
  165.  
  166.  
  167. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 5-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
  168. --------------------------------------------------
  169.  
  170.      ____________________________________________________________
  171. 087 |                                                            |
  172. 086 |               **                                           |
  173. 085 |            ******                                          |
  174. 084 |         **********                                         |
  175. 083 |        *************                                       |
  176. 082 |        **************                             **       |
  177. 081 |       *****************                          ****      |
  178. 080 |       ******************                         *****     |
  179. 079 |      ********************                       ******     |
  180. 078 |      **********************                     ******     |
  181. 077 |      ***********************                   ********    |
  182. 076 |     **************************                *********    |
  183. 075 |     ***************************    *********************   |
  184. 074 |    ******************************************************  |
  185. 073 |*********************************************************** |
  186. 072 |************************************************************|
  187. 071 |************************************************************|
  188.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  189.                         Chart Start:  Day #177
  190.  
  191.  
  192. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 10-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
  193. --------------------------------------------------
  194.  
  195.      ____________________________________________________________
  196. 086 |                                                            |
  197. 085 |              ****                                          |
  198. 084 |             *********                                      |
  199. 083 |            ***********                                     |
  200. 082 |            *************                                   |
  201. 081 |           ***************                                  |
  202. 080 |          *****************                                 |
  203. 079 |         ********************                      ******   |
  204. 078 |        **********************                    ********  |
  205. 077 |       *************************                 ********** |
  206. 076 |*     ***************************               ************|
  207. 075 |**    *******************************    *******************|
  208. 074 |*** ********************************************************|
  209. 073 |************************************************************|
  210. 072 |************************************************************|
  211.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  212.                         Chart Start:  Day #177
  213.  
  214.  
  215. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 20-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
  216. --------------------------------------------------
  217.  
  218.      ____________________________________________________________
  219. 084 |                                                            |
  220. 083 |                     *****                                  |
  221. 082 |                   **********                               |
  222. 081 |                 **************                             |
  223. 080 |               *****************                            |
  224. 079 |******* **   *********************                          |
  225. 078 |************************************                        |
  226. 077 |***************************************            *******  |
  227. 076 |******************************************       ***********|
  228. 075 |************************************************************|
  229. 074 |************************************************************|
  230.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  231.                         Chart Start:  Day #177
  232.  
  233.  
  234. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
  235. -----------------------------------------------
  236.  
  237.      ____________________________________________________________
  238. 081 |                                                            |
  239. 080 |            ****************                                |
  240. 079 |***************************************************         |
  241. 078 |************************************************************|
  242. 077 |************************************************************|
  243.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  244.                         Chart Start:  Day #177
  245.  
  246. NOTES:
  247.      The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
  248.      by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
  249.      Ottawa).  High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
  250.      activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
  251.  
  252.  
  253. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
  254. ---------------------------------------------
  255.  
  256.      ____________________________________________________________
  257. 107 |                                                            |
  258. 102 |             *                                              |
  259. 097 |             *                                              |
  260. 092 |            **                                              |
  261. 087 |         *  **  *                                           |
  262. 082 |         ** *** *                                           |
  263. 077 |         ** *****   *                                       |
  264. 072 |         ******** ***                           *  *        |
  265. 067 |    *    ******** ***                           *  *        |
  266. 062 |    *    ******** ***                           * ****      |
  267. 057 |   ****  ************                         *********     |
  268. 052 |   ****  ************                         *********     |
  269. 047 |  ***** *************                         *********    *|
  270. 042 |  ***** ***************                       *********    *|
  271. 037 |  ***********************                    ************ **|
  272. 032 | ************************          *        ************* **|
  273. 027 | *************************         *   **   ************* **|
  274. 022 |**************************   *** * **  **   ************* **|
  275. 017 |**************************** *** * ********************** **|
  276. 012 |******************************** ***************************|
  277. 007 |************************************************************|
  278.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  279.                         Chart Start:  Day #179
  280.  
  281. NOTES:
  282.      The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
  283.      daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC.
  284.  
  285.  
  286. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (26 AUG - 04 SEP)
  287.  
  288.                               High Latitude Paths
  289.             ________________________________________________________
  290.            | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  291.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  292. CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  293.   LEVEL    |           FAIR |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  294.  -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  295.    70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  296.            | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  297.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  298.            |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  299.            |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
  300.             --------------------------------------------------------
  301.  
  302.                              Middle Latitude Paths
  303.             ________________________________________________________
  304.            | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  305.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  306. CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  307.   LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  308.  -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  309.    75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  310.            | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  311.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  312.            |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  313.            |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
  314.             --------------------------------------------------------
  315.  
  316.                                 Low Latitude Paths
  317.             ________________________________________________________
  318.            | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  319.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  320. CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  321.   LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  322.  -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  323.    80%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  324.            | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  325.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  326.            |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  327.            |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
  328.             --------------------------------------------------------
  329. NOTES:
  330.         NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  331.   High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
  332. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
  333.    Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 30      deg. S.
  334.  
  335.  
  336. AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (26 AUG - 04 SEP)
  337.  
  338.                             High Latitude Locations
  339.             ________________________________________________________
  340.            | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  341. CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  342.   LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  343.  -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  344.    70%     |            LOW | * | * | * | * |** |** |** |***|***|***|
  345.            |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  346.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  347.            |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  348.            |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
  349.             --------------------------------------------------------
  350.  
  351.                           Middle Latitude Locations
  352.             ________________________________________________________
  353.            | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  354. CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  355.   LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  356.  -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  357.    80%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  358.            |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  359.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  360.            |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  361.            |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
  362.             --------------------------------------------------------
  363.  
  364.                              Low Latitude Locations
  365.             ________________________________________________________
  366.            | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  367. CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  368.   LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  369.  -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  370.    95%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  371.            |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  372.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  373.            |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  374.            |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
  375.             --------------------------------------------------------
  376.  
  377. NOTE:
  378.      Version 2.00c of our Professional Dynamic Auroral Oval Simulation
  379. Software Package is now available.  This professional software is
  380. particularly valuable to radio communicators, aurora photographers,
  381. educators, and astronomers.  For more information regarding this software,
  382. contact: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".
  383.  
  384.      For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
  385. document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca"
  386. or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and
  387. related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.
  388.  
  389.  
  390. **  End of Report  **
  391.  
  392. ------------------------------
  393.  
  394. End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #969
  395. ******************************
  396.